Simon Chapman disciple and walking conflict of interest, Becky Freeman, has released a new paper. Titled 10 years of preventive health in Australia. Part 4 – extending gains in

tobacco control, the report explores a period between 2013 and 2023, a decade after Australia introduced plain packaging for cigarettes.

For Freeman, plain packaging with graphic health warnings was instrumental in the decline of Australian smoking rates. However, when placed alongside a broader pattern of decline in smoking since 1991, the impact of these policies is more modest than she’d like us to believe.

In the service of both truth and fairness, research shows that plain packaging and health warnings do have an impact on smoking prevalence rates, especially over the short term. Understandably, smokers soon become desensitised to these shock tactics, underlining the limitations of the approach as a long-term method.

Other things that have impacted Australian smoking rates include excise duty, which has doubled the price of cigarettes from $24 to $50 in the same period. These taxes have led to the rise of illicit tobacco turf wars, with hundreds of tobacconists being firebombed unless they stock black market cigarettes. For Freeman, these atrocities do not warrant a mention.

Vaping

Freeman laments the rise of vaping in Australia, fretting that ever-use among teenagers (14–17 years) rose from 9.6% in 2019 to 28% in 2022–23. These same attitudes have led to a hostile environment for vapes, culminating in strict controls that forced the products to be pharmacy-only.

For all the talk of being against Big Tobacco, Australia’s anti-vaping policies have handed the legal vaping market on a platter to companies like PMI and Altria. Small businesses and vapers have borne the brunt of these decisions. It’s an unforgivable legacy.

Vapes' role in declining smoking rates

The National Drug Strategy Household Survey 2022–2023, released on 27 May 2025, shows that Australia’s smoking rate has dipped below 10%. Not by coincidence, vaping has gone up at the same time. This persistent causal pattern has also been observed across the UK, the US, Europe, and neighbouring New Zealand.

Current use of vapes has gone from 2.5% in 2019 to 7.0% in 2022–2023. Young adults (18 to 24) are the most likely to vape but also the least likely to smoke. Once again, this clear and obvious correlation is lost on Freeman, or at least so inconvenient that drawing the conclusion is something she is unwilling to do.

Black market

It’s impossible to talk about tobacco or vapes in Australia without discussing the black market. As touched upon above, Freeman and her ilk's policies have led to a full-scale tobacco war involving organised crime syndicates, arson attacks, extortion, and murder.

Conservative estimates suggest that “chop chop” is 15% to 20% or more of legal tobacco sales, with some analysts suggesting the market is worth $5 billion annually in Australia. It’s impossible to see how further tobacco control regulation won’t result in more of the same, or worse.

Australia’s “world-leading” public health policies have resulted in the widespread availability of unregulated products, while also making daily life more perilous for citizens and business owners.

Similarly, Australians who want to use smoke-free products face excessive hurdles to get their hands on the vapes. Per Clearing the Air, 90% of Australian vapers have been priced out of the legal market. Illicit vapes retail at between 50% and 70% of legal products, but still offer enough profit margin to incentivise criminal gangs.

Products are less safe, tax coffers are lighter, and more resources must be directed to authorities trying to enforce this illogical prohibition. Poorly designed policies are at the heart of this black market. The idea that the people behind this mess should have any further input is lunacy.

Final thoughts

Freeman’s paper ends with a battle cry. The National Tobacco Strategy aims to reduce smoking prevalence to 5% or less by 2030. She suggests that policy innovation and enforcement will get Australia there.

Sweden and New Zealand have hit these levels by making harm reduction a central pillar of their tobacco policy. Australia deserves a smoke-free future. That includes freedom from smouldering tobacconists and the ability to buy harm reduction products without unreasonable restrictions.