A recent article on the New Zealand media and news site Stuff suggests that young Kiwis are so desperate to quit vaping that they’re taking up smoking instead. There is something quite nostalgic about seeing a media outlet trying to float the vaping-is-a-gateway-to-smoking conspiracy theory. Even tobacco control activists seem to have memory-holed that prediction some years ago, when study after study showed smoking declining among youths and adults.
Still, the anecdotes persist, and Stuff is happy to put some weight on them in its article titled, ‘Cigarettes have this aura’: The young Kiwis smoking to quit vaping. Let’s look at what’s really going on.
Are students using vapes to quit smoking?
The article supports this claim by citing interviews given to an Otago student magazine on a Saturday night out. These interviews provide a snapshot into young New Zealanders' attitudes towards vaping. Let’s break a few of these down.
Gateway
One vaper says that while he’s always been averse to cigarettes, due to having a parent who smoked for 40 years, he feels that vaping has made him curious about smoking. While this curiosity hasn’t manifested in him actually having a cigarette, he suggests that this urge indicates vaping is a gateway to smoking.
Lung cancer
Another student feels that articles linking vaping to lung cancer have contributed to some students switching to cigarettes. The logic here is confusing, until you remember that young people have been bombarded with lies, propaganda, and fearmongering about vaping, while being exposed to relatively little coverage about the harms of smoking. That approach from governments, media, and healthcare communicators has left youths without the information they need to make sensible healthcare choices.
More addictive
A follow-on point from youths not having the right information about the continuum of harm of nicotine products is their willingness to substitute smoking for vapes because they believe vaping is more addictive.
Three friends interviewed by the student magazine all agreed that vaping is more addictive, with one saying they use “darts” to limit her nicotine use. Once again, this approach only makes sense if you think that nicotine is the most harmful component in cigarettes. Call me crazy, but when it comes to consuming nicotine, I’d like to limit my exposure to tar, benzene, carbon monoxide, and all the other carcinogenic ingredients in combustible cigarettes.
Furthermore, these friends are sharing a popular misconception about addiction. Because you can theoretically vape everywhere, many people take small hits more frequently. With cigarettes, you get around 1mg per stick, which is delivered rapidly. Vaping delivers smaller amounts of nicotine, even if you take several long drags.
Culture
Other students suggest the culture around smoking is changing. They cite a number of factors, such as going outside to socialise during music events, Gen Z’s nostalgia for analog experiences, the aesthetics of smoking, pop culture moments like “Brat Summer”, and even a feeling that fatalism is cool.
Look, it’s easy to tee off on younger generations. When we all were young once, I can’t be too critical about them thinking smoking is cool or whatever, especially when teachers, parents, and various media have been warning them off it for years. Still, starting to smoke out of nostalgia is like building homes with asbestos and zero safety protocols because you yearn for simpler times.
Do the anecdotes add up to demonstrable data?
So, do the anecdotes actually add up to anything tangible over the longer term? There is no data that isolates students alone, but one interesting stat shows that youth vaping among 14- to 15-year-olds dropped from 8.7% to 7.1% between 2024 and 2025. However, much of that is due to do with concerted efforts to reduce youth vaping, including stiff fines for suppliers selling to under-18s.
When it comes to use among 18- 24-year-olds, the claims in Stuff collapse. Since 2019/20, youth smoking has fallen from 13.1% to 4.4%. Vaping, on the other hand, has seen a rise from 5% to 23%, according to this Health New Zealand survey. If vapers were switching to smoking, that wouldn’t happen.
Some people who vape may go on to smoke. I’m not sure if that makes vaping a gateway drug, because people who decide to vape in the first place are more likely to have personalities that would also try smoking.
Final thoughts
Stuff’s claim that there is widespread or generational substitution of cigarettes for vapes is not supported by data. While they have collected a few anecdotes, it’s hard to draw too much from these stories. If anything, what this article highlights is how vaping educational messaging has left young NZ citizens less informed about the relative harms of products, leading them to see cigarettes as a credible option. They’re not.
