Well, it's confirmed. On June 17th 2024, the long-mooted rise tax cut for snus was passed at the Riksdag. As far back as September 2023, the government announced that snus taxes would drop by 20%. Just as significant is the fact that the tax on cigarettes and other forms of combustible tobacco will increase by 9%.

The changes will come into force in November 2024. However, it's not just a victory for Swedish snus users who are already struggling with high inflation. It's also a rare victory for common sense.

The economic policy spokesperson for the Sweden Democrats, Oscar Sjöstedt, said this year that:

"The health effects vary widely between snus and, for example, cigarettes. In light of this, it is perfectly reasonable to reflect that difference in tax policy as well so that the healthier alternative is approximately three kroner cheaper."

This position makes sense. More harmful products cost money via healthcare and lost productivity. If we must insist on sin taxes, some sense of proportionality is important.

However, there is another important lesson that we should take from Sweden's approach.

Prices can affect smoking prevalence rates

As demonstrated in The Effects of Traditional Cigarette and E-cigarette Taxes on Adult Tobacco Product Use (Pesko, 2019), asymmetric vape and smoking tax increases have a clear effect on consumer preference for either product. While similar research for taxation effects on snus use is thin on the ground, it's at least interesting to consider that a similar dynamic is present across smoke-free products.

Making healthier products cheaper incentivises people who smokers to quit, especially when cigarettes go up at the same time. Similarly, if the gap between vapes and cigarettes closes, some people lose a powerful reason for embracing alternative nicotine products: saving money.

Of course, in the context of Swedish snus, these dynamics might be less pronounced. Tins of snus were already significantly cheaper than cigarettes at $7 vs. $4. What's more, per a WeAreInnovation poll last year, price was only a factor in using snus for around 5% of the population.

What the UK can learn from the Swedish model

While Sweden's and the UK's health care systems are not exactly the same, they both offer universal care that is largely covered by public funding. Making products like vapes and nicotine pouches available reduces the burden on both systems.

Jeremy Hunt's cash grab on vapes in the budget was grotesque. He claimed it would add $450 million to the UK coffers, some of which would make its way to the NHS. Penalising citizens for choosing healthier alternatives was a confused act by a man who, in my opinion, has failed upwards in public office.

Although it seems to have been whitewashed from history, Hunt's record at the helm of the NHS was appalling. Apparently, he is a really nice and conciliatory man, but in the words of Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross:

"You're a nice guy? I don't give a s**.*

Good father? F** you! Go home and play with your kids."*