It’s challenging to determine the extent of influence the pro-harm reduction community has on general elections. Claiming that he’ll “save vaping again” certainly did Donald Trump’s election chances no harm.

Similarly, I wonder if Rishi Sunak has had a sleepless night or two, worrying about how his support for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill further alienated the Conservatives from their supposed core values, such as personal liberty and free markets, thereby turning off 5.6 million potential voters.

With Canada’s snap election today, the Conservative Party leader, Pierre Poilievre, has endorsed harm reduction products and promised to overturn the August 2024 law that prohibited the sale of pouches anywhere except pharmacies.

Will Poilievre’s promise be enough to have an impact?

Let’s take a look.

2025 Canadian Election

Justin Trudeau’s time as leader of the Liberal Party was a disaster for Canadians. Trudeau was trendy, handsome, and had luscious flowing hair. He’s also a poster child for why these characteristics alone shouldn’t make someone electable.

His obsession with American-style identity politics always felt performative. Additionally, many Canadians feel Trudeau’s unchecked mass immigration has contributed to the cost of living and housing crises and placed a considerable strain on social services.

Foreign policy blunders, a seemingly never-ending raft of party scandals, economic mismanagement, and his penchant for authoritarian governance—most notably his invocation of the Emergencies Act in 2022 to suppress the Freedom Convoy protests—sullied Trudeau’s image in Canada and on the world stage.

Perhaps most of all, after a decade in charge, Canadians were just tired of Trudeau. So much so that at the start of the year, Pierre Poilievre seemed like a dead cert to win. But then, Trump happened.

The Trump cloud

The toxicity around Trudeau meant he couldn’t win the 2025 election. However, Mark Carney’s appointment as PM was the shot in the arm the beleaguered party needed.

UK readers will be well acquainted with Carney due to his tenure as Governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020. His reputation on these islands is mixed, at best. For many, he’s essentially an aloof technocratic elitist, whose frequent shifts in forward guidance on interest rates earned him the nickname the “unreliable boyfriend.”

His stance and economic analysis on Brexit have also been questioned. But, for the Liberal Party, Carney denotes a welcome return to something akin to common sense, or at least a move towards the centre after the more extreme periods under Trudeau.

In truth, Donald Trump has had the biggest effect on the election. Since he started imposing punishing tariffs on Canadian exports and calling the North American country the “51st State,” the controversial leader seems to have mobilised the voting population.

Despite Poilievre campaigning on issues that matter to Canadians, the rhetoric from Trump has created a strong sense of resistance against conservatism in general. The betting markets have spoken, and Carney is seen as a 4:1 favourite on Polymarket.

CBC also has Carney ahead, with a narrow but significant 4% lead.

Other polls, like the Ledger poll, showed similar results (43% vs 38% toward Carney), and the National Post and Journal Montreal gave Carney a 1.7% lead.

So, if it seems almost certain that Carney will get through, where does that leave harm reduction in Canada?

What does a Carney win mean for pouches?

Since his appointment as Prime Minister, Carney has not made any public statements on pouches. However, we can infer his likely policy stances based on other comments and the fact that unhinged Mark Holland promised not to run for reelection.

Here are a few things to keep in mind.

  • Carney presents a centrist shift for the Liberals. This should mean an emphasis on evidence-based policy, with pouches recognised as a tool to curb, not accelerate, Canadian smoking rates.
  • Mark Holland was a never-ending source of bad ideas. Now that he’s gone, retailers could lobby for presence in convenience stores once again. The key is that they might have a Health Minister who is open to listening to evidence.
  • As an economist, Carney might be that rare species of politician who at least understands black markets a little. As such, he might appreciate these dynamics in the context of vapes and pouches, and why looser regulation favours citizens.
  • Eliminating the ludicrous consumer carbon tax gives hope. For starters, it shows that, as PM, Carney is willing and prepared to overthrow some of his oddball predecessor's frothy luxury beliefs.

Final thoughts

Based on their statements alone, any single-issue voter in favour of harm reduction must vote Poilievre. However, Carney’s likely win won’t automatically be a disaster for Canadians in this specific dimension. It’s very much going to be a watch this space kind of thing.

And that’s about as positive and hopeful as I can get. So, good luck to both candidates and may the best man win.