Daily Pouch Money takes a look at different nicotine pouch manufacturers to see if it’s worth finding room for these sin stocks in your portfolio. Previous editions have looked at PMI in March and BAT in June.

Since we recommended getting involved, PMI has gone from $158.48 to $170.18 (+7.3%), while BAT has gained nearly 20% with a rise from $47.79 a share to $57.24.

Now, as always, we need to underline that we’re not in the business of giving out investment advice. At best, these pieces could form part of your overall research alongside other more authoritative sources and guidance from financial experts.

This time around, we’ll take a look at Altria, already up by 23.6% this calendar year. The big question for investors is whether they can sustain or beat these lofty heights before 2026?

Altria in 2025, so far

Altria has a range of popular products, with Marlboro cigarettes being perhaps the most well-known of their combustible brands. When it comes to vapes, they acquired NJOY e-vapour in 2023, and their flagship nicotine pouch brand is on!.

Interestingly, Marlboro had 41% of the market share in the US in Q1. That’s down 1% from the same time last year, despite the continued overall decline in combustible smoking. For investors, it could signal that the Marlboro brand is robust enough to retain customers as smoking continues to decline in popularity.

Altria investor report with smokefree product growth graphs, on! pouch tin, NJOY vape, and reading glasses on a table.

Like many other tobacco companies, Altria has smoke-free ambitions. They know which way the wind is blowing, so they’ve invested in bringing these kinds of products to the market. As such, on! nicotine pouches shipments are +18% yoy, while the company’s overall oral-tobacco revenue is +5.9% H1. More generally, Altria’s smokefree revenues are around $2.8 billion per annum, with a 2028 target of $5 billion per year.

How will the rest of 2025 play out?

Predicting how things will turn out for Altria for the rest of the year involves weighing up the pros and cons facing the business. As always, there are some regulatory risks that could be decisive, but even those are challenging to credit because of the overall unpredictability of the FDA.

Regulatory headwinds

Tobacco control tried to remove menthol cigarettes from the market this year. They failed. Of course, these groups have a lot of time and energy on their hands, so they’ll no doubt try again.

Similarly, there was a lot of talk about nicotine cap limits per cigarette. Indeed, a draft regulation was drawn up in January this year. The extended public comment period runs until September 15, 2025, and there will be delays and twists and turns, so don’t expect any ruling or decision until next year, at minimum.

So, with that out of the way, let’s explore some of the pros and cons of buying Altria shares this year.

Pros for buying Altria

Here are some of the reasons why we like Altria for 2025:

  • The menthol ban is unlikely to happen any time soon.
  • The stock has great dividends (6.5% to 7%).
  • Altria reliably generates cash, and they’re using some of it to fund a $1bn share buyback program.
  • They're not as far along their smokefree product journey as other brands, so there is plenty of room to grow.
  • They could benefit from an FDA crackdown on Chinese vapes because their NJOY vapes are FDA-approved.

Cons for buying Altria

Here are some reasons to be cautious:

  • Cigarette sales are dropping fast; prices increase are not enough to retain revenue.
  • Altria’s heavy focus on the US market makes it vulnerable to regulatory changes.
  • PMI and BAT have an “earlier mover” advantage on their smoke-free products. What’s more, NJOY's purchase hasn’t quite delivered the predicted revenues.
  • A low ESG rating makes institutional investing harder.*
  • There has been something of a sea change in the US since January 2025. While ESG ratings were all the vogue in recent years, and certainly impacted the overall investment market, we could see that change thanks to federal policy rollbacks, potential litigation, and changes in corporate behaviour. How much of that is baked into current tobacco company prices is anyone’s guess.

Final decision

I don’t have a crystal ball, so I can only tell you what I’m going to do. While I don’t think another 25% rise is on the cards, I think single-digit growth is possible.

The solid cash flow and dividend alone are worth getting involved for, and on! and NJOY have potential to capture some of the burgeoning smokefree market and compensate for combustibles’ decline, but much depends on the sort of innovation that isn’t exactly Altria’s hallmark.

In short, I think Altria can close out the year positively, but whether it beats S&P 500 targets of 10% or more is another thing. I’m going for high single-digit growth, with anything more than that a bonus.